Tulum, Quintana Roo
84A−
Revenue Density0.71×
SeasonalityQ1 + Q4 peak
Permit RiskModerate
Comp Saturation0.32 idx
Operator Tools · STR Deal Risk Check Live · Volume IV
Run the deal before the deal runs you.
Test buyer and arbitrage Airbnb deals against operator-built logic, risk signals, and stress scenarios before you risk capital.
Deal verdictRisk signalsNext actionsStress testsContextual lessons
- Buyer + arbitrage deal modes — not arbitrage-only
- 21 deterministic inputs, PASS / WATCH / FAIL / BLOCKED verdict
- Sharper than a calculator: rules, risk signals, next moves
4BR Polanco · Yr 1
JanAprJulOct
Gross Revenue$138,400
NOI$71,820
Cash-on-Cash21.4 %
Break-even Occ.42 %
№ 01·What the analyzer does
Three answers, before you wire money.
Every analysis runs the same three checks every operator runs by hand — in seconds, on any property, with the same data backbone we use for our own deals.
Real comps. Real seasonality.
Nightly ADR$214
Occupancy71.2%
Annual gross$138,400
ConfidenceHigh · 47 comps
Saturation, permits, demand.
Market score84 · A−
Saturation0.32 idx
Permit riskModerate
SeasonalityQ1+Q4 peak
All-in cost, NOI, IRR.
All-in cost$141,500
Cash-on-cash21.4%
DSCR1.81×
5-yr IRR19.2%
№ 02·Find your path
What problem do you want solved?
You don't have to decide what kind of operator you are first. Pick the problem you want solved and the system routes from there. Investor analysis is live today; Host and Systems tracks ship next.
Investor Track · Live Now
Estimate STR Profit
I want a fast, honest read on whether an Airbnb deal can actually make money — before I commit capital, sign a lease, or wire a deposit.
Host Track · Launching · 3 mo
Improve a Property
I already have a listing or property and want better performance — pricing, listing quality, operations.
Coming next
Systems Track · Phase 3
Build Your System
I want to run STR operations with real systems instead of memory and chaos — repeatable process, dashboards, automation.
Coming next
№ 03·The system
One system. Three layers.
The STR Investment Analysis System (Investor Track) combines three integrated layers. The Host and Systems tracks will follow the same one-system-many-layers shape — different problems, same operator-grade decision logic.
Layer 01
Market Vetting Layer
Most deals fail before the property even matters.
Market ScoreSupplyPermits
Layer 02
STR Projection Engine
Test assumptions before you believe them.
RevenueCostsBreak-evenCash Flow
Layer 03
Deal Analyzer
Buyer and arbitrage are not the same risk in different shoes.
Buy vs ArbPath Fit
№ 04·Access
Start simple. Unlock deeper analysis when you need it.
One system, three depths. Free for the first directional read. Lite for serious comparison. Full for the operator-grade workflow you can actually run a buy decision on.
Free Preview
$0forever · no card required
- Guided property inputs
- Rough revenue range
- Basic risk signals
- Cleaner projections + assumptions
- Market vetting layer
- Deal analyzer (buy vs arb)
Lite Analysis
from $29per report · range $29–$49
- Cleaner projections + assumptions
- Structured downloadable report
- Basic market context
- Full market vetting layer
- Deal analyzer (buy vs arb)
- Sensitivity analysis
Full Investor System
from $149annual access · range $149–$249
- Everything in Lite
- Full market vetting layer
- Deal analyzer (buy vs arb)
- Advanced risk flags
- Sensitivity analysis
- Exportable decision dashboard
Pricing is currently flexible · access tiers may evolve before launch
№ 05·The cost of guessing
Bad Airbnb decisions are expensive.
Most STR losses don't come from operations. They come from buying the wrong property in the wrong market with the wrong strategy. The system exists to catch those four failures before the down payment.
i.
A deal can look good before the real assumptions are tested.
Surface revenue and city-average occupancy hide the math that determines whether the deal actually pencils.
ii.
Revenue guesses hide risk.
A model that only works at perfect occupancy and zero seasonality is not underwriting — it is hoping.
iii.
Market selection can kill a deal before operations begin.
A great listing in a fragile market is still a fragile investment. The market is the first deal; the property is the second.
iv.
Buying and arbitrage require different logic.
Fixed obligations behave differently against variable revenue. Same property, two strategies, two completely different risk profiles.
№ 06·Why this logic
The model is built from real operating — not generic course theory.
The defaults, the risk flags, and the comparison frames come from years of STR underwriting and operating across multiple markets — and the eventual rebuild into a more systemized, technology-assisted operation.
Built from real operator experience.Shaped by actual STR decision-making — across luxury and mid-market, across U.S. and Mexico, across deals that worked and deals that didn't. The model is designed to reduce guessing, not replace judgment.
18 yrsOperating experience
4 marketsU.S. + Mexico
1,400+Deals analyzed
TBDCapital analyzed
№ 07·The wider system
The platform expands beyond the investor edition.
Investor Track is the active commercial path. Host and Systems tracks come next as separate routes — each focused on a different operator problem.
Live Now
Investor Track
Validate a deal before you commit capital.
Launching · 3 mo
Host Track
Improve a property that is underperforming.
Phase 3
Systems Track
Replace memory and chaos with operating systems.
Intelligence layer·CasaLogix powers the analyzer, projections, and market scoring
Stop guessing. Start running the numbers.
Most calculators stop at the number. AirbnbTutorials helps you interrogate the result — see the verdict, understand the risks, and decide your next move before you commit capital.
Free first run · no card required · ~10 min